Tom Pidcock won’t win a mountain bike World Cup or even finish on the podium in 2025, largely because he won’t actually be at any of the 10 rounds making up the UCI XC calendar. That’s my prediction for the next 12 months because, despite being awarded an OBE in the New Year’s Honour’s list (the first mountain biker to garner the accolade) for winning gold at the Olympics, it’s pretty clear his focus is on the road.

Pidcock left Ineos Grenadiers at the end of 2024 following three years with the British team, and has just joined Swiss outfit Q36.5. This is probably make or break for the UK rider then, if he wants to make a proper go of the road and back up his early promising potential now is surely the time… even if that means backing away from the sport he once said he was born to race.

Tom Pidcock taking the A-line at the Andorra World Cup, September 2024 // Bartek Wolinski, Red Bull Content Pool

Can we expect a period of self imposed pressure, to give road racing everything in 2025 even at the expense of mountain biking? It’s a crying shame for our sport, but it does look likely – Pidcock has already declared he won’t race CX in 2025, but plans to return for the 2025/26 season… presumably after the Grand Tours have wrapped up with the Vuelta a España in September.

He’s also now the team leader at Q36.5 meaning he’s expected to win races and garner the support of every other rider on the team – tricky to do it you’re swanning off mountain biking mid-season. His new team boss Doug Ryder also told the BBC “His attention to detail is next level. He focuses on every millimetre; on the bike positioning and the bike set-up, to the nutrition, to the race programme, to the coaching.” That doesn’t sound like a man prepared to compromise or risk an injury.

Pidcock’s Pinarello Dogma XC race bike… awful to ride as a regular mountain biker, back fast as anything in the right hands

That said, Pidcock will continue to ride Pinarello’s Dogma XC mountain bike despite Q36.5’s affiliation with Scott. The Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team has a deal with Scott lasting until the end of 2025, but Pinarello confirmed in December 2024 that Pidcock will continue to use the brand’s bikes for off-road racing. Pinarello will surely want some exposure from its continued sponsorship deal, so we’re not writing him off completely just yet. I reached out to Tom Pidcock for confirmation of whether he’ll race XC in 2025, and will update this page at a later date.

I’d be very surprised to see the current Olympic mountain bike champion competing on dirt at all this year then: Or snatching the rainbow jersey from Alan Hatherly, a trick he’ll have to leave to Mathieu van Der Poel…

Mathieu van Der Poel for the mountain bike overall?

Meanwhile, Mathieu van Der Poel has a wardrobe of rainbow jerseys including six from cyclocross and one from the road, but he’s missing the most important one: the mountain bike Worlds. The Dutchman hopes to change this in 2025, taking time out from cross to recover from injury and also complete his cycling trio of World Championships.

Mathieu van Der Poel could be the name to watch on the XC scene in 2025 | Getty Images

And despite a pretty patchy record on a mountain bike, he’s actually got a pretty good chance, especially without Pidcock in the mix. He’s competed at the mountain bike Worlds before, but never with distinction, coming third in 2018 and recording a DNF in 2023, but it’s never really been a focus. And despite that he’s still talented enough to have three World Cup wins to his name, and a clutch of podium finishes including most recently a second place at Nove Mesto in 2021.

Now though according to an interview with Sporza mountain biking is the most important goal for the year. “If I could choose, I would like to become world champion mountain biker this year. I haven’t succeeded yet and it keeps playing in the back of my mind,” Van der Poel told the Belgium public broadcaster.

Mathieu van der Poel is aiming for the 2028 LA Olympics XCO

His long term goals also seem to be knobbly tyre related too, with the Olympics in 2028. “I have one more chance for that: LA will almost certainly be the last Games I participate in. It would be great to try to finish in LA on the mountain bike,” Van der Poel said.

Again though Mathieu Van Der Poel hasn’t had the best luck off-road at the Olympics, famously crashing at Tokyo 2020, going over the bars on the Sakura rock drop. He later said on social media he thought the drop was rollable via a wooden ramp, but this feature only appeared in the training run. He got back up but later withdrew on lap five.

The Cyclo Cross World Champion did better at Rio in 2016 at the tender age of 21, but was beaten into silver by fellow Belgium Remco Evenepoel.

Mountain biking and road riding have always had a close relationship, with plenty of great road riders crossing over onto the dirt, and vice versa. Mathieu van Der Poel is just the latest, with a long line of riders from Cadel Evans to Jonny Tomac mixing it up.

But in recent years there’s been greater fluidity between the sports and greater number of multi-disciplined riders, most famously Pauline Ferrand-Prévot, who races XC for Ineos Grenadiers but also has Worlds titles in cyclocross and road to her name.

Nino Schurter at Val di Sole 2024: can the best rider of a generation be toppled by van der Poel? // Bartek Wolinski, Red Bull Content Pool

Mountain bike World Cup XC calendar

• April 3-6: Araxá – Minas Gerais, Brazil
• April 10-12: Araxá – Minas Gerais, Brazil
• May 23-25: Nové Město Na Moravě, Czechia
• June 5-8: Saalfelden Leogang – Salzburgerland, Austria
• June 20-22: Val di Sole – Trentino, Italy
• July 9-13: Pal Arinsal – Andorra
• August 21-31: Haute-Savoie, France
• September 18-21: Bike Kingdom – Lenzerheide, Switzerland
• October 3-5: Lake Placid Olympic Region, New York, USA
• October 9-12: Mont-Sainte-Anne, Canada