Last January I recorded a video making some safe, and some not-so-safe, predictions about which bikes would be relaunched in 2024. Much as it’s tempting to let my guesswork fade with the obscurity of time, I feel it is my duty to do the right thing and publicly take a glance in the rear view. Just how many guesses did I get right? Or perhaps, more fittingly, how many did I get wrong? Let’s get stuck in.

Specialized’s Demo downhill bike looks old next to the spaceship ridden by Loic and Finn, but it’s still an absolute flying machine.

The very first bike I mentioned in the video was the Specialized Demo, AKA the prototype downhill bike being ridden by Loic Bruni, Finn Iles, and Jordan Williams of the Specialized Gravity Team. Sadly, while that bike is proving incredibly successful – and the bike every World Cup rival seems most envious of –  there’s no sign of a public release just yet. So my first prediction is a big fat strike out. But, the fact that Specialized has pulled the cloak off the shock, and even let Henry Quinny from Pinkbike ride it. So maybe we’re getting close to a public launch. Obviously, as I outlined in the video, I don’t expect the production version will use the lugged construction of the prototype – it will likely be a carbon monocoque, in the same way as Pivot turned its distinctive lugged prototype into the beautiful swan that is the new Phoenix DH bike. Maybe we’ll even see a launch in time for the first World Cup in May? Fingers crossed!

The new machine is a rig and a half, especially in the hands of Loic Bruni. Photo: Bartek Wolinski / Red Bull Content Pool

The other two Specialized’s I mentioned in the video were the Enduro, the Stumpjumper Evo, and the Turbo Levo. Well, I was wrong about all but one of those as well, as only the Stumpjumper got a refresh in 2024. Actually, I was half-right about the Enduro, as rather than put this near-five year-old design out to pasture, Specialized has updated the seatstay assembly to accept a UDH mech hanger, and make it T-Type compatible. This cheap and easy revision is enough to keep the Enduro alive for another year or two, while Specialized works out whether there’s still a market for high-end conventional enduro bikes. Of course Spesh also has the Turbo Kenevo SL, and that also gets a UDH hanger, so the two will continue to go head-to-head for sales in 2025.

The Specialized Stumpjumper 15 Pro more than makes up for the loss of the Evo.

Back to the Stumpjumper though, and as I predicted, the new Stumpjumper 15 did lose the Sidearm frame design to mirror the Levo SL. But, frankly, it didn’t take the mind of Einstein to figure that out, and the big shift I missed was the Stumpy losing its Evo moniker. I don’t think many people expected that, since it was such a strong sub-brand within the Stumpjumper category. Still, the new model seems to go pretty well thanks to its Genie shock – Alan actually reckons its the best Stumpjumper FSR he’s ever ridden. High praise indeed.

The big missing launch from Spesh was the Turbo Levo. Everyone expected it at some point last year, so it would be a shock if there wasn’t a new one in 2025, especially following the introduction of the impressive new Bosch CX motor, and the arrival of DJI on the e-bike scene with the Amflow PL Carbon and some outrageous power and weight numbers.

Trek’s new Rail+ Gen 5 gets longer travel, MX wheels, and a new battery compartment for the latest Bosch 800Wh battery and CX motor.

Turning to my next brand, I said that there would be a new Trek Rail in 2024, and – whoop – I was right on this one. Specifically I predicted it would get similar styling to the Fuel EXe (it didn’t), with sharper styling (debatable), and more adjustability (tick). As predicted, the side-entry battery of the old Rail was side-lined, but while I said it would move to a fully enclosed design, Trek actually rotated the hatch around to the underside of the down tube, keeping it easily removable. Although, thankfully, not quite as easily removable as the old design.

So, three correct and two wrong so far. Better than I expected!

YT’s second ever e-bike is the Decoy SN e-enduro bike with Fazua motor.

The next bike evens those scores out however, as I earmarked the YT Izzo as ripe for a redesign, and nothing of the sort happened. But I did say that YT might launch an SL e-bike, and they did! The Decoy SN, although at over 20kg, it bends the lightweight rule book a bit. Bit I’ll take it.

Canyon has done an amazing job with the styling and packaging of the latest Spectral:ONFly, but it’s not got the staying power we’re looking for.

And Canyon was my next prediction, that it would also launch an SL e-bike. And it launched not one, but two – the Neuron:ONFly and the Spectral:ONFly. The former with the Bosch SX motor, and the latter with the TQ HPR 50 motor. Of the two, the Spectral:ONFly looked the fly-est, with a super sleek design and dynamic handling. But, although TQ had already released a bigger 580Wh battery by the time the Canyon came out, the Spectral:ONFly only got the 360Wh unit, which left it was really limited range.

Scott’s evergreen Spark seemed like a sure-fire bet for a relaunch going into the Paris Olympics, but Nino and Kate Courtney were both rocking the current bike for the big event. Nor did Santa Cruz come out with a new Blur XC race bike – again I missed the mark with this guess.

No more VPP for Santa Cruz on the brand-new Bosch-powered Vala.

I did expect Santa Cruz to come out with a new e-bike, but I guessed it would be a new Bullit, not a completely new platform with not a VPP in sight. Yep, I didn’t see that one coming, and given that the Vala is a completely new platform, will Santa Cruz stick with the old bike names for whatever comes next? Maybe it will bring out a new Super 8 e-bike with more travel and a Bosch motor? It also has the Butcher name in the vaults it could resurrect as well as the Tazmon, the Driver 8, or the Nickel. Will it be one of the brands to partner with DJI to supply drive units?

SRAM’s Powertrain motor is a solid performer, but seems to be heading into obscurity.

Sadly, despite rumours to the contrary, Nukeproof didn’t find a buyer in 2024, so the Reactor and Mega didn’t get a refresh. At the moment we’ve no idea what’s going to happen to the brand, but seeing that On-One has just rebadged the Reactor trail bike as the Atomic, at least the brand’s products are living in on in some form. Which reminds me, what’s happened to the SRAM Powertrain motor? Launched at the back end of last year, this Brose motor with SRAM electronics and automatic shifting came on a select few e-bikes in 2024 – one being Nukeproof. But with Nukeproof in stasis, GasGas caught up in the financial problems of parent company Pierer Mobility AG, only Propain and Transition are really out there with this offering. And neither of them seems to be pushing it very hard. Now it’s been overshadowed by the new Bosch CX and the DJI Avinox, it feels like the SRAM unit is already on the back foot.

The Merida eOne-Sixty mixes full power with (relatively) light weight to great effect.

Turning to Merida now, and I guessed there would be a new eOne-Sixty e-bike in 2024. I hit the jackpot on this one, because there were not one, but three different new eOne-Sixtys launched, two with Shimano EP801 motors, and one with the Bosch SX unit. The only problem is, the resulting model range is not very easy to understand, with a 25kg+ option with a Shimano EP801 motor, a lightweight Shimano-powered bike at around 22kg, and a lightweight Bosch SX-powered option that’s 21kg. Talk about filling all the niches.

My other Merida prediction was the Ninety-Six – the brand’s marathon/XC racing machine. A bike that’s a big deal to Merida since it has been extremely successful on the racing circuit for many years now. No new Ninety-Six came in 2024, but looking at Merida’s UK website, there’s no sign of it at all. In Europe it’s still available, but could its no-show in the UK point to a new version on the horizon for 2025? Time will tell.

Back with a bang: The 2025 Calibre Bossnut.

I’m down to the last three bikes now, and only one of which made the light of day this year. That bike was the Calibre Bossnut, with a thoroughly modernised reimagining of this iconic budget full-bouncer. With bigger wheels, more travel, better sizing and geometry, the Bossnut came back with a bang. The only thing that hadn’t grown was the price – at £1,500 it’s still a total bargain. And then Go Outdoors slashed the price to £999 for Black Friday, which just goes to show the crazy state of the mountain bike market at the moment.

Yeti’s 160E remains unchanged – will we see a revised design in 2025?

Which only leaves two Yetis from my predictions list, one being its downhill bike – which it says won’t ever be sold to the public – and the 160E e-bike that still lives on in the Colorado brand’s range in its original form. Actually, 2024 saw the 160E score some pretty big wins on the E-EDR circuit and hit the headlines thanks to Shimano’s powerful new firmware update for the EP801 motor. Maybe there’s life in the old Sasquatch after all…

By my dodgy maths, that’s 9 wrong predictions and 8 right ones. Hmm, perhaps not the industry-leading insight I’d hoped for this time last year. Guess I better come up with a new list for 2025 and see if I can up my game.